Trump’s domestic political support craters at the 100-day mark before his Middle East trip

President Donald Trump reached the 100-day mark in his second term this week seeing a sharp drop in his domestic political standing. His approval rating at this point in his presidency is the lowest of any other president in at least the last seven decades, and it comes less than two weeks before Trump embarks on a key Middle East trip.

The decline in Trump’s support is mostly due to the growing dissatisfaction with some of his policy moves, particularly tariffs and rising prices, as some signs emerge of rifts inside his own Republican party. With more than 1,350 days left in office, the second Trump administration faces a long road ahead and will have many opportunities to adapt its approach.

American presidents in search of successes to advertise sometimes turn to foreign policy, a realm where the executive branch has comparatively unfettered powers to drive the agenda. But thus far, the Trump team has not achieved any major outcomes in its overall foreign policy approach. Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine have thus far not produced quick results, and the trade war with China and tariffs threatened against many other countries are roiling the geopolitical landscape and global financial markets and producing a domestic political backlash.

The lack of any major wins for the United States at home or abroad may incentivize Trump and his team to look to his Middle East trip as a chance to achieve some progress, but the region remains fraught with uncertainty on the eve of this presidential visit.

US Middle East policy: Looking for silver linings in a risky region with chronic threats

President Trump travels to the Middle East on May 13-16 hoping to achieve progress on multiple regional issues, but the spotlight will likely remain on the economy even during this visit.

The central feature of this trip will be economic ties with three regional powerhouses: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Trump is seeking to sign bilateral economic deals that would attract major investments in the United States, including projects that would benefit Trump’s family business. With America’s economic picture growing dimmer as a result of Trump’s trade wars, it seems likely that the president will use a good part of the Middle East trip to distract from those troubles and turn the spotlight to the economic deals that are already in train with those three countries.

Thus far, Trump is not scheduled to visit Israel like he did in 2017, an omission that has drawn partisan criticism for previous presidents, as was the case when President Barack Obama visited the Middle East in 2009 without stopping in Jerusalem.

Trump 2.0 has not yet seen any major movement toward a sustainable resolution on the Israeli-Palestinian front, and in fact has seen a backsliding from where things were at the end of President Joe Biden’s administration with the breakdown of the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Trump’s handling of the Israeli-Palestinian issue remains the weakest part of his overall Middle East agenda. If there is no progress on this issue, the ongoing conflict and deteriorating human security situation in Gaza will limit Trump’s achievements during the trip and beyond, even if there are big economic deals and more signs of success in negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program.

One space to watch: the administration’s approach on Iran has produced some hope for a new nuclear agreement — Iran remains the biggest strategic challenge in the Middle East, but the second Trump administration remains divided on the best pathway forward.

US policy in the Middle East rarely provides domestic political dividends

With the end of President Trump’s short and fairly unsatisfying second political honeymoon at home on the eve of this Middle East trip, it is worthwhile reflecting on its possible domestic political impact. As with nearly everything else associated with Trump, uncertainty remains a central feature because this US president prides himself on his unpredictability and unmatched skills to shock and improvise. It is difficult to estimate what Trump will achieve on this trip outside of the likely economic deals because of the many unsettled fronts in the region — but it is unlikely to be dull or conventional.

If Trump is looking to secure some quick wins that benefit his political standing at home, he and his team should keep in mind that the Middle East rarely pays positive domestic political dividends, even after major successes. Trump lost the 2020 presidential election to Joe Biden just weeks after signing the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco on the White House lawn.

Other presidents who have achieved successes in the Middle East similarly have not seen lasting political gains. President George H. W. Bush lost his re-election bid in 1992 just a year after major victories in the First Gulf War and America’s bigger victory in the Cold War with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Berlin Wall, and the benefits that President Jimmy Carter received from brokering the historic 1979 peace deal between Egypt and Israel were outweighed by the political costs of the Iran hostage crisis and the economic problems America was experiencing at the time. All of these other cases are sui generis, of course, but it is difficult to find an example of a US president rewarded with a sharp positive reversal in his domestic political standing as a result of deeper engagement in the Middle East.

That is why it is important to keep in mind the real reason why the United States should have a steadier engagement in this part of the world: America’s strategic interests are best served by building strong, enduring partnerships that bolster the economy and security of the US and enable any administration to respond to challenges and seize opportunities. This requires long-term investments in diplomacy in order to build relationships of trust and confidence, as Middle East Institute President and former US diplomat Stu Jones recently argued on the Middle East Focus podcast.

Presidential visits are openings to produce progress in US bilateral and multilateral relations, but the real measure of success comes over longer periods of time.

 

Brian Katulis is a Senior Fellow at MEI.

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